By Chip Newell
Recently, there has been talk about the imminent recession. President Trump has been threatening increased tariffs on imports from China, and China was threatening retaliatory tariffs on American goods. European economies were slowing down, and the threat of a hard Brexit added to concerns.
As Trump reconsidered tariffs, strong consumer spending driven by wage gains and steady job growth had the pundits talking about a slowdown, not a true recession.
A closely held secret of mine is that in addition to my work as a real estate developer, I have been a closet economist since majoring in the subject at Bowdoin. I, like all honest observers, have no idea what path the economy will take. Therefore, in the midst of the most recent recession scare, I was glad to see an article in New York Times entitled, “A Recession Isn’t Inevitable: The Case for Economic Optimism.”
While we cannot say for sure what the future holds, I do believe that projections about the economic future need to include consideration of factors unique to Maine and the Portland economy. Maine has traditionally entered economic slowdowns later than other national and international economies, and economic recoveries have similarly lagged. Also, Maine’s economy has traditionally neither soared as high as the nation as a whole, nor fallen as far.
In addition, Portland is in the midst of an economic “mini boom” which has not been seen for decades, if not a century or more. And while residential real estate prices have increased in the local market recently, Portland real estate is still a relative bargain compared to the high-priced metropolitan areas on both coasts.
We remain confident about the future of Portland’s economy, and Maine’s economy, in the short- and mid-term (since in the long-term, we all are dead, as famously pronounced by John Maynard Keynes).
“While we cannot say for sure what the future holds, I do believe that projections about the economic future need to include consideration of factors unique to Maine and the Portland economy.”
